The future of electric heavy road transport
Within the transport sector, arguably the most significant remaining frontier for innovation and market impact is the electrification of heavy road transport. Even in this segment, however, progress in electrification has been much faster than progress in alternatives such as hydrogen powered heavy road transport, one reason why several sub-segments that a few years back were believed would be powered by hydrogen are now significantly electrified.
Heavy road transport is not a homogeneous segment; its elements include municipal garbage collection, construction and mining, specialized city logistics, and long-haul delivery.
Some segments will be easier to electrify due to the driving patterns, where transport distance and convenient, rapid charging are important determinants of total cost of ownership (TCO). Despite considerable pressure in many markets for commercial logistics companies to reduce their Scope 1 emissions, TCO is a key indicator of which categories will be electrified first. Unlike private owners, logistics companies are likely to conduct detailed TCO analyses prior to switching to electrified vehicles. Clearly, with further development of EV truck technology and fast charging, the categories that can be electrified will continue to increase.