Road transport

Passenger vehicles make up the largest segment of transport in terms of both number of vehicles and emissions. Cars and vans account for 46% of transportation CO2 emissions and 10% of global CO2 emissions. Passenger vehicles are also the most straightforward to electrify given the existing development of technology and charging infrastructure.

With government mandates to ban the sale of combustion engine vehicles running on fossil fuels within the next 10 to 15 years (for example, in countries that are part of the Accelerating to Zero Coalition) it may seem inevitable that electric vehicles (EVs) will dominate the future market. DNV projects that 50% of global passenger vehicle sales will be electric by 2031, with the market moving fastest in Europe and China.

To realize these projections, challenges such as a complimentary charging infrastructure build-out supplying different EV drivers’ needs (fast charging, destination charging, charging-at-home with vehicle-to-everything integration) associated with this deployment need to be addressed. If these challenges are not overcome through innovative development in EVs and their associated charging infrastructure, then this transition will be slower and more costly.

The innovations required to facilitate mass adoption of EVs need only to be incremental. Radical new technology is not likely, nor necessary. Nevertheless, there are both big opportunities and challenges for all involved in the EV supply chain, from EV manufacturers and suppliers to financiers, energy companies and charging station operators.

The transition to EVs will differ markedly from country to country: Norway is the prime example of how transportation can be electrified rapidly, with 79% of cars purchased in 2022 being electric (OFV, 2023). In addition to EV-friendly policies and state support Norway has benefited from an already robust electricity infrastructure. As most of Norway’s heating is already electrified, the average annual electricity demand is 23,000 kWh per capita vs 6,000 kWh per capita for the European Union. However, it should be noted that for countries with less capacity in their distribution and transmission networks, the transition will be more challenging. In Sub Saharan Africa, where just over half (54% of the population) has access to electricity, EV uptake will severely lag high-income regions.