We predict that by 2031, half the global sales of new passenger vehicles will be battery electric vehicles, followed by commercial vehicles in 2038.
The route to decarbonization is clear: electrify what can be electrified; what cannot be electrified in the near term should be switched to sustainable advanced biofuels; and prepare for hydrogen-based new fuels to scale through local and regional ecosystems to a global ecosystem from 2035.
Electrification will be cheaper than fossil fuels, but hydrogen and sustainable biofuels cannot compete cost-wise with oil and thus need different policy levers to scale.
Electricity will revolutionize road transport and is also gaining share in subsectors previously thought to be hard-to-electrify, like heavy trucking and short-haul aviation.
— Electricity’s share in transport will grow from 1% today to 4% in 2030 and will be 23% in 2050.
— In 2050, electricity meets one third of energy demand in road transport, but powers nearly 80% of the global vehicle fleet.
